Thursday, February 5, 2009

5.9 Million Jews, 15 million opinions, 25 Politcal Parties

The election season is on in Israel. Unlike the US, this election season is limited to two weeks for television ads . The Likud party seems to hold a lead in the pre-election polls, but other parties are also drawing support. These include, Kadima, led by Tzippi Livni(The Prime Minister), Labor, led by the Defense Minister (Ehud Barak), and Yisrael Beiteinu, led by MK Avigdor Lieberman, an immigrant from the former USSR. Lieberman is seen by some on as an anti-Arab agitator and demagogue; others view him as a forthright leader drawing attention to the need for a basic level of loyalty to the state by all citizens and refusing to take any guff from loud voices who condemn Israel and Israeli policy. There are smaller parties such as Shas (a religious party dominated by Sephardim); Meretz, viewed as a left-leaning civil liberties, peace and progressive party; Yarok Chadash/Meimad, a partnership of environmentalists and religious moderates working for better public education and for tolerance among Jews; there also is the Green Leaf plus Holocaust Survivors party, a combination of a faction pushing to legalize Marijuana and a party seeking to advance the respect, material concerns and honor of the Holocaust survivors in Israel (No I am not making this up).

Among the voters I have spoken with, there is a wide spectrum of opinion: One father in Jerusalem, a Sabra, dislikes Bibi Netanyahu, but thinks Likud will win; he is voting for Labor and Barak. His wife is undecided. Another friend in Modiin, an American oleh, is working hard for Meretz. He admires the people on the party list and beleives in a progressive agenda on peace with the Arabs and on social issues in Israel. His daughter is choosing between Labor and Kadima. Friends in Rehovot, a scientist and a communictions industry engineer are solidly for Kadima, even though they are less than 100% sure about Livni. On orthodontist from Long Island who has been a citizen for 10 years and who recalls enduring missile attacks from Gaza when he lived in Beer Sheva, is solidly for Likud and Bibi. "We do not live in a nice region." He told me. "We have to take a firm line with our enemies. It is all they understand." Also, on economic grounds, he prefers Netanyahu, who had been Finance Minister in a previous government: " I am conservative in my outlook," he exlpained.

I have seen many Likud posters, but I have encountered teenagers passing out literature and campaigning for the New Green/Meimad party. Today in Haifa, Tamar and Binyamin explained that they hold the environment as a very important issue. As young people, they take a long term view. Even thought this party will not deliver a prime minister, they see a chance to influence policy in a significant way as a part of a coalition. Two elderly gentelman talked in the locker room of the local health club in Modiin: "I lean towards Likud, but you cannot trust Bibi. He changes his stripes all the time. He is not trustworthy." "If Barak wins, all will be well," said a taxi driver in Tel Aviv.

According to some reports, over thirty percent of the electorate is undecided. Political ads and parodies appear on television. Coverage in the papers is heavy. Tzipi Livni appeared on a popular talk show on Channel 10 and acquitted herself well, in my view. She represents herself as a strong leader, non-corrupt, with outreach to younger voters and female voters as special constituencies. Livni is outspoken in her criticism of Likud and Netanyahu as being unprepared for the challenges of peacemaking and insensitive to the needs of poorer Israelis. Posters for Ehud Barak seen in Tel Aviv proclaim: "Not sexy--A Leader!" and "Not Trendy--A Leader!" Barak's camp appears to be trying to make his lack of natural charisma as a candidate into a virtue.

Against the backdrop of the politicking are profound challenges for the state, including the challenge from Iran and her clients, the financial crisis shaking the entire world, religious and social internal issues and the needs of many diverse constituencies. Many public service announcements on television, in print and on posters urge citizens to vote. At this point, a great deal is at stake and the outcome is undecided. There is a high degree of engagement in the people I have spoken with and observed over the last ten days. At the same time, some express a weariness with some of the same political personalites, none of whom is especially inspiring to these voters.

Without a doubt, containing and confronting the Iranian threats posed by a nuclear weapons program and proxy terrorist groups on Israel's borders remains the single most important issue, one that is shared by the rest of the region and by the other Western countries, whether or not they recognize it. There are no easy answers. One person who studies stategic and regional issues observes that if and when Iran develops an atomic weapon, it is an open question what they actually intend to do with it. "The Iranians know that they could take out Tel Aviv with one bomb, but they are not really prepared to take ten bombs in response." This sounds like the theory of Mutually Assured Destruction that kept a tense stand-off during the Cold War from erupting into global calamity. Why does this MAD scenario not reassure me? Another friend replies, "The basic value of some value of human life in this world and the fear of destruction inhibited the Soviets. These are Shiites in Iran. To the Shiites, the life of the infidel has no value, and for themselves, to be a shahid is the purpose of life. If giving up life to kill the enemy is the path for which Shiite children are raised, what is stoppin them? On the other hand, if faced with near total destruction, Iran's leaders might think twice."

Personally I do not undertand how the NATO countries, the Gulf States and the USA could have been so tentative in addressing this crisis. For the present, I pray that President Obama's diplomacy can unlock the impasse before it is too late. However, it is hard to see how that would happen. Having visited Yad Vashem on Monday, I am reminded that the unthinkable can happen.

All this electoral politics and nuclear geo-politics is not especially cheerful; but it is of great import. At the same time, a pasage from a reading seen at Yad VaShem affirms the preciousness and meaning of every moment of life, especially in the presence of danger and even death. Let us hold into our love of life, of the daily events, joys, sorrows and pleasures that make our lives meaningful and beautiful. Judaism affirms the preciousness and holiness of life. This is a message that bears repeating every day.

Shabbat Shalom from the Galil.

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